A brand new poll released by Monmouth has revealed a stunning shift in the presidential race in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania as former President Donald Trump has pulled ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris 47 percent to 46 percent, which, in reality, likely means this contest is incredibly close. It’s virtually a tie at this point. Most thought that Pennsylvania would clearly continue to go blue as it has for a while now, but things do not appear so cut and dry as the left wants to make them out to be.
Check out more details from Monmouth University:
West Long Branch, NJ – Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are basically tied in the race for Pennsylvania’s electoral votes, according to the Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll. This result comes even though Trump is seen as being more in line than Harris with the Keystone State’s political views. Harris does best among high-propensity voters, while Trump’s path to victory relies on turning out enough low-propensity voters. The current state of the U.S. Senate race is a little better for Democrats, but not by much.
Overall, just under half of registered voters in Pennsylvania say they will either definitely or have already voted for Harris (42%) or will probably vote for her (5%). In a separate question, an identical number will either definitely or have already voted for Trump (42%) or will probably vote for him (5%). Trump continues to have a significant advantage among white voters without a college degree – who make up nearly half of Pennsylvania’s voter pool – garnering 60% support from this group to 35% for Harris. Harris holds the edge among white college graduates (58% to 37% for Trump) and voters who are Black, Hispanic, and of other races (62% to 25%).
The current results represent statistically insignificant movement from Monmouth’s Pennsylvania poll taken five weeks ago. Support for Harris has decreased nominally by one percentage point from 48% in September while her definite support ticked up from 40% to 42%. Trump’s total support has increased slightly by 2 points from 45%, with his definite support going from 38% to 42%. At the opposite end of the spectrum the number of voters who have definitely ruled out a vote for Trump increased slightly from 46% to 49% and the definitely not number for Harris went up by a bit more, going from 44% to 50%.
“It’s important to note that any movement we’ve seen since the last Monmouth poll is well within the margin of error. What we said last month still applies. Percentage point shifts are too small to be statistically precise in a poll, but they could be consequential if real. The bottom line is this was an incredibly close race in September and remains so today,” Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, went on to say about the poll results.
When you look at things from a regional perspective, the former president is doing similar to how he did four years ago in the red parts of the state. The 52 county area located in the western and central parts of Pennsylvania, includes Amish country, but leaves out Allegheny County, Trump has 58 percent support compared to Harris’ 37 percent. In the last presidential election, the 45th president took this part of the state, which is 40 percent of the whole statewide vote, 63 percent to 36 percent.
It’s a different story in the southeast corner where the favorite color is blue. Philadelphia and the four surrounding suburbs are backing Harris with 58 percent compared to Trump’s 36 percent.
“Factoring potential third-party voting into these results puts registered voter support for Trump at 47% and support for Harris at 46%, with 4% definitely or probably backing another candidate and 3% expressing no candidate preference. Different scenarios give a picture of how the outcome could change based on small shifts in turnout. Just over 8 in 10 voters (81%) say they are extremely motivated to vote this year, up from 75% a month ago. Among this motivated group, Trump has 48% definite or probable support and Harris has an identical 48% support. Last month, Harris (50%) had a slight edge over Trump (46%) among extremely motivated voters,” the Monmouth report continued.
“Trump’s path to victory in Pennsylvania is by turning out low-propensity voters. In a normal election this may be difficult to do. For many, their lack of participation is due to an underlying distrust in government itself. Being drawn out to participate in the democratic process by Trump’s ‘burn it down’ appeal could be the ultimate irony,” Murray explained.
Things are starting to get very interesting out there, guys.