NOTE: the following article is satire, not a statement of fact. Treat it as such.
How is the American economy doing? According to National Economic Advisor Lael Brainard, everything is going wonderfully. Such is what he said in a recent speech, stepping on stage and saying:
It is a pleasure to join NABE in its annual assessment. It is a good moment to assess our economy’s recovery. There is broad agreement that the strong U.S. recovery has exceeded expectations following the devastation of the pandemic and the Putin price shock to food and energy. Beyond this, there are preliminary indications the recovery is laying strong foundations for the future—with business dynamism, labor force engagement, and key categories of business fixed investment exceeding pre-pandemic trends—catalyzed by President Biden’s historic legislation.
The U.S. economy is healthier today than was forecast just one year ago, stronger than the same stage of previous recoveries, and better on growth and inflation than our peers. There has been a large decline in inflation toward its 2 percent target alongside solid growth and low unemployment. Indeed, headline and core PCE inflation have been around 2 percent for the past half year. Inflation has declined even as growth was around 3 percent over the year, and unemployment remained below 4 percent for 2 years, the longest stretch since the 1960s. Looking to history, we have never had a year where inflation has declined this fast, alongside robust growth and a stable, low unemployment rate. Remember the Bloomberg headline of October 2022: Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100%? Just one year ago, forecasters simply did not believe inflation could fall by this much without a jump in the unemployment rate.
Rather than necessitating the output and employment costs associated with the Phillips Curve, as some anticipated, the resolution of a perfect storm of supply shocks and other pandemic distortions bears primary responsibility for the rapid decline in inflation. In part, this reflects the Administration’s efforts in partnership with the private sector to fix broken supply chains in areas like ocean shipping, trucking, semiconductors, and at the ports as distortions unwound. As supply chain pressures fell from record highs to pre-pandemic lows, disinflation followed close behind, and the United States experienced both a stronger recovery and faster disinflation than our peers.
The only problem was, Mr. Brainard had been directed to the wrong spot. The White House schedule got mixed up and, instead of speaking to a collection of private equity managers and Wall Street hedge fund managers, as was intended, Mr. Brainard was speaking to a gaggle of homeless veterans at a homeless shelter. Kamala Harris had been scheduled to speak to them.
So, as Brainard rambled on about how wonderfully everything is going, telling the crowd “everything is going great,” the veterans lost it. A cacophony of booing and jeering drowned out his speech as everything from cups of coffee to shoes were hurled his way by men unable to make a living in Bidne’s America. As he was ushered off stage, Mr. Brainard was heard to remark, “Why are they so angry? My stock portfolio is doing great.“